Geopolitical Summary of the Mideast & North Africa as of Present

3 posts


As I understand it;

The Euro-American/GCC technique in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen has been to retire the heads of these pro-Western secular proxy regimes so as to assuage the angry masses, but also to retain as much of a pro-Western secular government in each as possible, whether assembled out of vestiges of the old regimes and/or from the secular, pro-Western opposition groups.

In Libya, Syria, and Sudan, the Euro-American/GCC aim is to back, by military intervention and sanctions, armed rebellions so as to completely topple Sino-Russian & Iranian clients and allies. Chad and South Sudan are eager for action against Sudan. Turkey and Jordan against Syria. Beirut & Baghdad, both under political domination by Syro-Iranian puppet parties, stand by Russia & China in opposing any measure against Assad in Syria.

As in Iraq 2003-2005, their only obstacle in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Sudan post-regime change is Islamist electoral victories, or if denied the electoral route, as Hamas in Gaza 2006 and the FIS in Algeria 1991, the Islamists attempt to seize the reins by force. Countries where in the Islamists come to power, participant NATO countries will not have military bases or contracts for their defense and energy firms... the entire objective of NATO involvement.

In Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Oman and Kuwait the monarchs’ strategy is to appease the opposition by granting them favors and powers, for fear that they too will turn to revolt.

In Bahrain and Saudi Arabia the monarchs are violently preserving themselves against Iranian-backed Shia uprisings within. Saudi Arabia’s military has invaded Bahrain to help suppress the Shia uprising there, and has attacked the Shia Houthi rebels in Northwest Yemen.

Turkey’s Erdogan has backed the revolts in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria in hopes of making allies of his fellow Sunni Democratic Islamists, and while working with Iran against Kurdish rebels, matching Tehran’s influence in the Arab world. Turkey has been particularly keen in its support of the Syrian and Libyan revolts, because Assad and Qaddafi are/were Sino-Russian clients, Moscow and Beijing constituting Ankara’s rivals in the Balkans, Caucasus, and Turkistan. Erdogan is currently polling as the most popular world leader among Arabs, by far.

The governments of Algeria, Mali, Niger and Mauritania remain unchallenged but for the preponderance of Al Qaeda bases and activities along their shared borders, and with the loss of their allies in Tunis, Tripoli, and Cairo, the looming possibility of catching the contagious pan-Arab Spring.

With Israeli and American backing; Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi have combined ground forces in Southern Somalia against As Shabaab in a bid to preserve the pro-Western secularist TFG proxy government now reduced to downtown Mogadishu. Djibouti hosts the US military in its war on As Shabaab. Eritrea remains covertly supportive of As Shabaab and vocally hostile toward Ethiopia.

The coalition is withdrawing from Iraq, denied a continued presence by the Iranian-backed Shia Islamist government in Baghdad. Al Qaeda persists in the Sunni Arab provinces. The Turkish military has repeatedly crossed into Iraqi Kurdistan to engage the PKK.

Israel, the US, and UK are preparing to deploy their air forces and navies against Iran… as they have been for years. Meanwhile, Netanyahu frets the ascent of anti-Zionist parties all around the region.

The fall of Mubarak has opened Gaza's border to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The fall of Qaddafi and the looting of his arm depots has flooded the Sinai and Gaza with weapons, as well as other African conflict zones. The anticipated fall of Assad has Turkey, Iran, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt making offers to Hamas.

The UAE and Qatar are impervious to rebellion, though money, diplomacy, and media is pumped out of both in an effort to steer the course of events. Qatar's Al Jazeera has been very supportive of the Arab revolts, while warning against the rise of Sunni Islamists and Shia.

nuclear launch detected

My theory is the arabs are rioting not because of a freedom or democracy, but because of the advent of cell phones, internet and cable tv in the middle east, 100 of millions of middle eastern poors are seeing for the first time the extravagant self-indulgent lifestyle of big macs, double downs, 3d tvs and hover rounds in the west and are screaming ME TOO in the streets. Somehow electing an islamist government will provide this for them.

Instant media and communication enabled them to see the successful revolt in Tunisia. A proof that popular uprising can depose a decades old Arab despot gave them the confidence to chimp, and each new success (Mubarak, Qaddafi, Saleh) boosts their confidence further.
The main factor behind all of the mass unrest of 2010-2011, OWS included, is high unemployment, debt, and cost of living among young men with college educations . In the Arab countries, this anti-government resentment among that demographic is nodded to by Islamist parties. The Islamist parties have long been popular with not only a considerable portion of the young & college-educated, but also with older, less educated crowds. Together, when rioting in the streets against police and military, are too much for a dictator to withstand... and if he can withstand them , then there are experienced Jihadists and defecting soldiers to resort to armed-rebellion.

The people support the Islamist parties because, since the end of colonialism, they've had decades of corrupt, oppressive secularists in charge. The Islamist parties keep a clean image, do a lot of community organizing and charity, condemn insults to the religious sensibilities of the majority, appeal to historical nostalgia by reminding the Muslims that their ancestors were prosperous in the age of Sharia, and most importantly everyone knows that an Islamic state bans the economic policies that they blame for their current dysfunction. Qaddafi, for example, banned private business and land ownership, thereby skyrocketing unemployment. Sharia, on the other hand, guarantees and promotes private business and land ownership.