Syrian violence Test US

3 posts

Suresh Mandan
One more nation in the Middle East is likely to go Egyptian way. Hope it does not become another Yemen?
Niccolo and Donkey
All of this simply cleans up the civilizational borders and works towards Huntington's thesis.

When Qaddafi finally does fall, it'll go to Algeria and Morocco immediately. When Assad falls, it'll go to Lebanon and Iraq. When Saleh and Hamad fall, it'll go to Saudi Arabia and Oman. Each increases the popular pressure in Jordan, Kuwait, and the West Bank. Khartoum is brewing a war with the South. Excepting Qatar and the UAE, this is the first time the whole Arab world has risen. By 2012-13, Sunni Islamists are going to hold several Arab states, an end to the secularist Monarchs and Juntas, and there will be a sectarian war on the Shia and Christians like we've never seen.
This all hinges on whether Assad and Qaddafi fall, however. If they don't, the uprising loses momentum and fizzles out... perhaps degenerating into a string of desperate and aimless Muj insurgencies akin to 90's Algeria.

The foreign powers, those who are losing vassal states, must do everything they can to ensure the new regimes are obedient. Offering support for their revolts, such as in Bengazi, for example, is smart if they've concluded Qaddafi can't withstand the wave. However, they'll be very disappointed when, as in Somalia after Barre fell, the larger part of the rebels won't sign contracts for their oil fields or uphold treaties with Israel, etc. Muj who once fought together for Brega will split between those who want to sign shit for BP, Exxon, and AIPAC's sake, and those who intend to reject White businessmen and diplomats and the armed, aggresive "peacekeepers'" they send in to empower those who will.