Introducing Child Martyrs

6 posts


Mass uprising in the Arab world is often predicated on a single injustice commited against a single Arab, typically a young unaffiliated unarmed male. This was true in Paris, Tunis, and so on and now they've got plenty of clean faced innocent boy martyrs in Syria. It is an established fact that once a mass of Arabs chimps over a dead soccer-loving kid it's almost impossible to calm them. I'm throwing my betting money against Assad's survival today.
Niccolo and Donkey
Few things are as powerful as symbolism and al-Jazeera really has a hard-on to remove Assad's regime (as do the Saudis). So I will agree with youthere.


"Christians to Beirut, and the Alawites to the grave!"

...says it all, really.

You've said that line like ten times already, it must really strike you.

My favorite genocidal slogan was during the Abkhaz insurgency against Georgia, they used to scrawl on the walls in bold letters, "Georgians can not live here, they can only die." Hardcore hate.

Al Jazeera downplayed the Syrian uprising at first. There was a hope early on that the overthrows would be limited to pro-Western regimes and that this new Ahmadinejad, Assad, Erdogan thing would remain firm. Now the Syrian opposition is in Turkey planning a replacement regime and Iran is afraid if it stands behind Assad it will lose what credit it has won with the Arab public.

Assad's best hope is to contain the uprising to Jihadist capitals like Deraa, the way Qaddafi did to Bengazi and Misrata. If he can keep Damascus and Kurdistan quiet, and draw on the Shia coast and Christian enclaves for backing, he might ride it out. However, the combined pressures of the Jihadi south, Kurdish East, College-Hippy Damascus will probably see him standing trial like his Egyptian counterpart rather than hanging on like Qaddafi.

Niccolo and Donkey
Asia Times recently reported that the Turks might enter Syria to create a buffer zone in the Kurdish region just like they did in Iraq.
Niccolo and Donkey

I've been watching the videos of the fighting in Syria, kids with holes in their skulls, a man with his jaw blown off but still partially conscious, a lot of screaming and gun fire, "Allahu Akbar! :clack clack clack:


The Christians and Shia have been quiet. The Kurds are weighing separatist moves, but they've been nonviolent. This is a Sunni Arab revolt with 100% liklihood of becoming conjoined with and mutually reinforcing the Sunni Arab insurgency in Iraq. While the Maghrebi chimpin has been a very clean homogenous popular revolution, Egypt, the Mashriq, and the Arab Penninsula it's going to turn into an Ikhwan/Qutbist national purging of secularists, monarchists, Christians, Shia, Yezidi. There's going to be a lot of refugees, I really see non-Sunni Syrians fleeing to the coast and into Lebanon if Assad falls.