Random scribblings on the Egyptian demos

10 posts

Niccolo and Donkey

1. Mubarak Jr. is done
2. Mubarak Sr. intends to keep the regime in power even if sacrificing his son and later himself albeit through a "smooth transition" to Omar Suleiman
3. Omar Suleiman is a military figure who is more than acceptable to western powers, especially the US State Dep't. He is anti-Iran and anti-MB.
4. Saudi Arabia has condemned the demos for obvious reasons relating to a fear of the MB seizing power and allowing it to spread through the region
5. Iran is supporting the demos hoping that the MB and related types would be able to take advantage of the confusion to remove Egypt from the American orbit
6. The Americans want to see some consmetic changes without letting the genie out of the bottle
7. The police has been withdrawn from the streets, the army has moved in: the former are less popular than the latter, but both are pillars of the regime

The US State Department says:

Niccolo and Donkey
Some excellent comments :

Niccolo and Donkey

From the same source as above:

Niccolo and Donkey

There are too many nonviolent college kids and family dads in the crowds to force Mubarak to leave. This could come and go, like the Iranian college kid riots of recent, without changing a thing. Zawahiri will then come out with a tape congratulating the people on their show of opposition, but chastising them for being cowards who've fumbled what could've been the most important change in the Arab world since decolonization.

I'll be more optimistic if they stop being such pussies and give Mubarak a reason to fear them. But even in the event he abdicates, the military will probably appoint an interim government, and schedule elections with al Ikhwan banned.

Niccolo and Donkey
I think this is where we are headed, which will allow western regimes to breathe a sigh of relief.
Niccolo and Donkey
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood eyes unity gov't without Mubarak

Niccolo and Donkey
Egypt protests: change is coming, says Mohammed ElBaradei



I'll laugh at El Baradei if in a month Mubarak is still in power and he gets thrown in sodomy house with all the other opposition.

Mubarak is not in a spiderhole, or on a plane to Saudi Arabia. People are getting too ampted, the regime is rich and well armed and will let the cities burn for weeks without budging.
For the geriatric strongman to go, the top ranks of the military would have to betray him... or the people are going to have to come at him with bayonets. The military loves Mubarak, and the people are too timid to lynch.

Watching Ikhwan and the college brats fail yet again will be the wind under AQ's wings, and maybe we can begin to see a situation in Egypt similar to the insurgency in '90's Algeria, with truck bombs and assassinations and de facto shariah courts in the countryside and so on.

Niccolo and Donkey
Pepe Escobar weighs in:

Note the Brzezinski comment: