Will the Thiel Index Predict Future Population Patterns in America?

3 posts


This topic started as an SB convo:


So the question is whether the Thiel index is predictive of the settlement patterns of non-Whites. In some ways, it is circular, since non-Whites tend to be poor, and where they settle relative to Whites creates the patterns you see here:


The advantage of the Thiel index is that each county shows what it contributes to the whole. Rural White society tends to be neutrally sloped in income distribution (not too flat, not too steep), and contribute little. The contributions of urban areas are predictable -- poor and rich live together in close proximity. The black belt and rural Hispanic settlements in the SW (and Eastern Washington State) also show up.

The point is that rural and small town Black settlement, and rural Hispanics, subtract from the Thiel index (tend to have flat income distributions). Urban Blacks and Hispanics, and very rich segments of the population have a huge positive contribution. These phenomena seem to transcend the 'Red State/Blue State' divide and be systematic in both regions.
President Camacho
Let me see if I understand....

Grey/dark grey areas= essentially rural, dominantly non-white, low incomes with relatively low income disparity
White/lightly shaded areas= essentially rural, dominantly white, average incomes with relatively low income disparity
Orange/red areas= Urban/suburban, "diverse" in whites and non-whites, high income disparities roughly divided along racial lines

Is this the proper way of interpreting the map?

That's how I read it, too -- the prediction, then, is that prior income disparities predict where minorities can and cannot settle. Assuming that no one (like Uncle Sugar, the gummint) gives them money to buy out the Whites in the healthier (white-coded) rural areas, they won't in fact move there -- even Hispanics -- except as an underclass. This latter eventuality can be monitored by seeing if any of the 'white' counties turn grey or orange. A white to grey transition would mean White flight, followed by rural poverty, and white to red/orange would mean side-by-side 'integration' of wealth disparity, as currently in our urban areas.

By the way, there is a theory that income disparity can exist in a 'safe zone' which has limits both on the low end -- too flat, economy stagnant -- and high end -- two sharp, and 'redistributional aggression' kicks in. We are as an aggregate at the high end, but that is almost entirely due to the urban coastal areas and their 'welfare' state, along with a very few inland counties, also urban.

The real skinny on inequality metrics and 'RA': http://poorcity.richcity.org/

My contention is that the Thiel index is useful for monitoring racial composition and ingression covertly -- the Socialists in the gummint are less likely to jigger it, because they care about 'income equality' or pretend to. It is, however, only one of two broad kinds of inequality measures [Hoover/Plato being the other kind], and the map does not present the 'symmetrised' version.

There was a lot of wisdom not to mention sound Geometry, in Plato, as you might note....

If 'census statistics' differed greatly from this map, or if the map were to change radically over time, I would want to know why. It's a good diagnostic, I think, for 'what's really going on' with demographics, income, race, and settlement patterns. I think in the next 50 years what happens to this map will be more stable than the in your face 'change' -- and more revealing. If large 'white' areas turn red/orange or darken, something serious is going on.

The null hypothesis is that nothing will happen to this map, even as demographics change. This is the canary map for risk to Whites (besides the ones they are already running).